Ocean carriers could find themselves under pressure from shippers to revisit long-term contracts as spot market rates tumble on the trans-Pacific and Asia-Europe trade lanes.
Small and mid-size NVOs are chipping away at the market shares of the top five NVOs in Asia-US trade by moving aggressively on smaller accounts and responding quickly to declining spot rates.
After seeing four weeks of declining spot rates in September-- when rates should be increasing -- and with factory closures coming next week during Golden Week celebrations in China, NVOs who sell in the spot market say further rate declines are possible.
With holiday season imports unable to gain traction and spot rates declining for the third consecutive week, peak-season 2019 will be defined by blanked sailings rather than surging cargo volumes.
This week’s double-digit surge in spot rates is more tariff-driven than anything else because there is little cargo rolling in Asia to generate a bidding war among BCOs for vessel space leaving Asia.
China announced its own round of new tariffs, prompting President Donald Trump late Friday to raise US tariffs on Chinese imports and instruct US companies to begin looking for alternatives to doing business with Beijing.
Spot rates in the westbound Pacific took a sizable drop this month due to declining US exports to Asia, which are resulting in especially low vessel utilization rates. The normal strong rebound, which should begin in November, could be muted as a result.
An almost 20 percent plunge in US imports from Asia in July shows the devastating impact of the trade war with China; import declines could worsen this fall with new tariffs starting in weeks.
Reversing course, Global Port Tracker is now projecting monthly year-over-year declines, or minimal increases, in US merchandise imports in the trans-Pacific during the peak season.
No-shows, or “downfall” in industry jargon, have plagued the industry for decades, but carrier attention has risen in recent years as pressure to increase waste rises, and digitalization provides opportunities to streamline the booking process
Spot rates in the eastbound Pacific are starting to firm, but will not increase as dramatically as they did during the 2018 peak season because importers are taking tariff announcements in stride.
Tactical use of blank sailings and extra-loaders will prop up freight rates while ensuring capacity during a peak season that will be marked by uncertainties because of the US-China trade war, a JOC webinar was told.
With US import growth of only 1.4 percent from all of Asia in the first half of 2019, and a 5 percent decline in imports from China, the six blanked sailings announced for June and July could be followed by others if volume growth disappoints during the coming peak season.
Shippers, ocean carriers, and freight forwarders say cargo owners are already rushing shipments to get ahead of potential tariffs on $300 billion of US imports from China.
Despite strong expected consumer demand, uncertainty over the outcome of the US-China trade talks could reduce growth in US electronics imports in 2019, after 5.2 percent growth in 2018.
Container carriers have been altering stowage plans for neo-Panamax ships to mitigate the current draft limits, according to the Panama Canal Authority.
Before May 5, when President Donald Trump announced that tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese imports would rise from 10 percent to 25 percent, carriers were relatively sanguine about 2019 and for good reasons.
Post-consolidation, US container trade has been dominated by the largest ocean carriers and alliances, but smaller, independent lines continue to find a market in the trans-Pacific.
Last year's decline in US container exports, especially those bound for Asia, has continued into the early part of this year as the US-China trade war lingers and outbound rail costs rise.
This lack of clarity on future high- and low-sulfur fuel costs worries BCOs and NVOs as they enter the more critical second phase of negotiations in March.
After a subdued end to 2018 and trade and with economic hurdles stacking up, there are relatively low expectations for the trans-Pacific air cargo market in 2019.
When imports increased strongly last summer, due in part to front-loading of shipments to get ahead of the Trump administration’s tariffs on China, spot rates soared by more than $1,000 to each coast.
Ocean carriers will have even more reason to show trans-Pacific capacity discipline, if Sea-Intelligence’s demand forecast proves to be accurate; however, a current container shipping trend may make that doubly hard.
There are still more unknowns than knowns about the US-China tariff ‘truce,’ but this is clear: the extra time until March 1 helps shippers by giving them a longer time cushion before higher tariffs could potentially start.
Following a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Buenos Aires on Saturday at the G20 summit, President Trump agreed to a 90-day truce in which the US wouldn’t impose higher tariffs on Jan 1. as threatened.
The US imports surge from Asia since mid-summer is due largely to savvy capacity management by carriers individually and through vessel-sharing alliances. However, retailers’ front-loading of imports to stay ahead of tariffs on mainland China led to an earlier-than-expected peak-shipping season this summer and now to fast-forwarding of spring merchandise.
Rising operating costs that are siphoning off profitability will see carriers having a much greater hold on capacity going into what is looking like a volatile 2019.